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Using our tool for reckoning the odds of recession, we find that the 1-quarter rolling averages for the Federal Funds Rate and the spread between the 3-month and 10-year Constant Maturity Treasuries gives the probability of recession beginning sometime in the next twelve months at 48.9%.
Using the daily discounted Treasury yield curve data, which the tool points to as a fairly good proxy for the 1-quarter averaged data (and which can easily be found on the web), we find the odds to be slightly higher, now at 50.1%.
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