Projecting GDP for 2010Q1

Now that the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis has finalized its GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2009, we can now officially project where the nation's inflation-adjusted GDP will be for the first quarter of 2010.

Using our Modified Limo method of forecasting real GDP, we anticipate that the United States' inflation-adjusted GDP for 2010-Q1 will be within 2.0% of $13,276.5 billion, as expressed in terms of constant 2005 U.S. dollars.

That marks an increase from the BEA's recorded final estimate for GDP in 2009-Q4 of $13,149.5 billion 2005 chained U.S. dollars. The low end for our forecast range corresponds to a real GDP of $13,011 billion, while the upper end corresponds to a real GDP of $13,542 billion.

If you'd like us to narrow that range down, we find a nearly 70% chance of real GDP falling into a range between $13,136 and $13,417 billion chained 2005 U.S. dollars in the first quarter of 2010.

Going back to our projection of where the U.S. inflation-adjusted GDP would be finalized for the fourth quarter of 2009, we came within 1.2% of the final figure of $13,149.5 billion chained 2005 U.S. dollars. We had anticipated that the final GDP figure for 2009-Q4 would be $12,996.9 billion in our earlier projection based upon the finalized value for real GDP in 2009-Q3.