DIY Economics!

Early in our history, Political Calculations became part of Bill Parke's Economics Roundtable where, thanks to the miracle of RSS feeds, we're able to keep up with commentary and analysis from many of academia's top economists.

But, more than that, these same folks have inspired a number of tools here at Political Calculations! Now, you too can analyze the economy like a pro:

Investing

Subcategory	Title	Description
Recession	Reckoning the Odds of Recession	Hands down, our most popular tool and post ever. Our tool is based on 2006 research published by the Federal Reserve that determines the probability of the U.S. economy going into recession sometime in the next 12 months using current bond market and interest rate data.
Recession	Visualizing the Probability of Recession	We went one step further from our recession odds reckoning tool and found a neat way to visualize whether or not the probability of a recession occurring in the next 12 months is better or less than 50%.
GDP	Forecasting GDP Using the "Climbing Limo" Method	What if, instead of relying on official government economic forecasts, you had a tool that produced a more accurate projection of U.S. economic growth some 60% of the time?
Monetary Policy	Targeting the Federal Funds Rate	Do you know that interest rate everyone gets worked up about whenever the Federal Reserve makes a decision about where to set it? Our tool takes a method developed by Harvard's Greg Mankiw that might help you gain insight into how the Fed does it!
Tax Policy	Consumption vs. Income Taxes	Did you know that income taxes discourage both work and savings while consumption taxes encourage them? Our tool does Professor Mankiw's back-of-the-envelope math to show why!
Bankruptcy	Predicting Bankruptcy	The Altman Z-score is one of the most popular tools you can use to predict if a publicly-traded company is heading down the tubes. Our tool will help you see if a company you're thinking about investing in is at risk.
Decisions	The Cost of Risk vs. Benefit	Economist Arnold Kling inspired this tool with his original post showing the math for determining whether or not a medical test might be beneficial enough to be worth its cost. Of course, being who we are, we recognized that the same math applies to whether or not the grand prize in the lottery is worth buying a ticket!
Data Modeling	Average Wages in the U.S.	We project the future average wage in the U.S. with our tool based on historical data from the Social Security National Average Wage Index.
Data Modeling	Projecting U.S. Median Housing Prices	What will the median price of a house in the U.S. be in 2010? In 2050? Our tool can help you find the answers!
Fiscal Policy	Minimum Wage and Small Business	What effect will an increase in the minimum wage have on your small business? Our tool gets to the bottom line!

Return to the User's Guide to Political Calculations....