Slipping Into Recession?

Is the United States slipping into recession? Perhaps the following chart will provide some insight:

Being naturally optimistic, we believe that the current position marked on the chart clearly indicates that the tide of recession is receding, and will continue to do so into the foreseeable future. We're just amazed that the method used to determine the probability that the U.S. would be in recession today forecast where we would seem to be one year ago.